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DECEMBER
2002
A
patrol from B/3-505th Parachute Infantry, 82nd Airborne Division, on
a Sensitive Site Exploitation (SSE) mission in the vicinity of
Khowst, Afghanistan. U.S. Army photo by Spc. Eric
Hughes.
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| r e s e a r c h
, a n a l y s i s , & p r o d u c
t i o n |
in-stack 7
Dec 2002 |
"The
Coming Revolution in Intelligence Analysis: What to Do When Traditional
Models Fail"
Carmen A. Medina, Studies in Intelligence
(Unclassified Vol. 46, No. 3, 2002)
"Evolution
Beats Revolution in Analysis"
Steven R. Ward, Studies in Intelligence (Unclassified
Vol. 46, No. 3, 2002)
Point and counterpoint over the
changing role of analysis in the intelligence production process. Medina
makes a fairly convincing argument that the traditional production model
misserves intelligence consumers in an age of information abundance. She
advocates a greater focus on tailored analysis for specific customer needs and a
move away from the analytical risk-aversion of "finished
intelligence." Steven Ward counters that the existing model is not
nearly as outmoded as Medina suggests and warns against sacrificing general
analyst expertise in the blind pursuit of "tailored analysis."
The particulars of this debate arise
in the rather narrow context of how the CIA performs intelligence analysis, but
the basic themes are relevant to the question of how any knowledge specialist
(whether scholar, lawyer, consultant, or something else) can best deliver value
in an era of abundant and readily-accessible information. (For a personal
view of a much smaller-scale example, see my note on the evolution
of this website.)
| m i l i t a r
y a v i a t i o n |
in-stack 22
Nov 2002 |
topcover
The aviation photography of Mark Farmer
A freelance photojournalist and
"fast jet" correspondent for a number of aviation and technical
publications, Mark Farmer specializes in shooting aircraft in the USAF tactical
inventory, including some breathtaking images of 3rd Wing F-15Es against the
glacial beauty of the Alaskan wilderness. If you have a moment of
downtime, his portfolio site is worth a visit.
| n o n p r o l i
f e r a t i o n i s s u e s |
in-stack 21
Nov 2002 |
"The
Threatening Storm: The Case for Invading Iraq"
Kenneth M. Pollack (Random House, hardcover, Sept. 2002)
This book presents a remarkably
level-headed examination of the history of U.S.-Iraq policy over the last
decade, and paints a clear picture of contemporary Iraq under the "Saddamist"
regime. Pollack, who was manning the CIA's military desk for Iran-Iraq on
August 2, 1990, and went on to be director of Persian Gulf affairs at the
National Security Council, avoids the shrill polemics that dominate today's
headlines and instead gives fair treatment to both sides of a difficult policy
issue. His analysis is balanced and very readable, and he applies a
scholar's eye to controversial questions such as the actual effect of U.N.
sanctions on Iraq. Highly recommended reading for the historical analysis
alone, regardless of how one ultimately feels about military action toward Iraq.
| r u s s i a / f
s u |
in-stack 21
Nov 2002 |
"Second
Coming of Typhoon"
Leonid Yakutin, Military Parade (Sept.-Oct. 2002) (PDF
format)
An article in the official journal
of the Russian military-industrial complex covering the re-launch of the
newly-named Dmitrij Donskoj (once simply known as TK-208), a Typhoon-class
(Russian Project 941/Akula) nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN).
TK-208 was the first of six hulls in the giant Typhoon-class,
built for the Soviet Navy in 1981. After the collapse of the Soviet Union,
the future of the Typhoons fell into doubt, and for a while it seemed
that the entire class would go into early retirement. Perhaps in part due
to the slow progress of the new "Project 935" fourth-generation SSBN,
however, the TK-208 was refitted to be a testbed for a new class of
submarine-launched ballistic missile. That missile, unfortunately, was
cancelled, but the TK-208 has re-entered the fleet anyway and will be
mated with a new missile system at a later date.
Note that Military Parade is
now providing its online articles in a scanned PDF format that replicates the
layout of the print edition, which is convenient.
| n o n p r o l i
f e r a t i o n i s s u e s |
in-stack 21
Nov 2002 |
"Iraq's
Weapons of Mass Destruction Programs"
Report of the Director of Central Intelligence, October
2002 (PDF
format)
An assessment of the current state
of Iraq's nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons programs, including its
programs for developing delivery platforms for all of the above. The
report also gives a summary of the U.N. inspection regime since the end of the
1991 Gulf War, and outlines the various deception programs that Iraq has
implemented to frustrate international arms inspectors. The U.S.
intelligence community has concluded that with respect to Saddam's nuclear
program, the gating item remains fissile material. With sufficient fissile
material from abroad, Iraq could have an operative weapon within a year.
If it cannot procure fissile material from a foreign source, it will likely take
Iraq until the latter half of the decade to domestically produce the necessary
material and build a working nuclear weapon.
| r e s e a r c h
, a n a l y s i s , & p r o d u c
t i o n |
in-stack 21
Nov 2002 |
"United
States Intelligence Community"
www.intelligence.gov
The official website of the fourteen
federal agencies (CIA, State, Energy, Treasury, FBI, Coast Guard, DIA, NSA, NRO,
NIMA, and the service intelligence branches) collectively known as the
"Intelligence Community." Despite its rather silly marketing
gloss ("The Power of Fourteen"), the site contains a lot of
interesting information about how the United States currently approaches the
problem of intelligence production. Primarily appears to serve a
recruiting function, as the intelligence community at large seeks to expand its
ranks with new analytical talent.
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